We are eating some boiled crow this morning after making the ridiculous prediction that Troy Carter would make the runoff in the Louisiana Second Congressional District race.  We were half right, because we predicted that Rep. Karen Carter would take one of the top two spots.  But we hoped the guy with $90,000 in his freezer would finish out of the running and Mr. Carter would slip in.  Instead, Mr. Carter finished a disappointing fifth, with only 12 percent of the vote.  He even finished behind a much younger Republican who had never run for office before (on a night that generally was not kind to Republicans).

Hurting Mr. Carter was his complete lack of get-out-the-vote effort, especially Uptown, where signs and supporters were non-existent.  His lack of a formal organization, like Jefferson’s Progressive Democrats, Karen Carter’s BOLD, Derrick Sheperd’s new “Marrero Machine,” and even Joe Lavigne’s GOP connections, obviously hurt him badly.

From a historical perspective, Mr. Carter’s performance should not have come as a surprise. He imploded in the 2002 mayor’s race, finishing almost exactly where he ended up last night: in fifth place, with 10 percent of the vote.

Next up:  Will Couhig Republicans swing their support to Jefferson like they did for Nagin?  Stay tuned.

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